fredag, november 23, 2012

Hur kriget stärkte Hamas

Jonathan D. Halevi är pensionerad officer, forskare och tidigare rådgivare
till Israels regering. Här lägger han synpunkter på hur den s k Arabiska våren och det senaste kriget radikalt förändrat det strategiska läget i regionen och stärkt Hamas ställning.

  • The current clash between Israel and Hamas did not begin with rocket fire but with ramped-up terror activity on the Israel-Gaza border. Hamas' strategy has changed over the past two years. It believes the "Islamic Spring" has altered the balance of power between the Arab world and Israel. 
  • Egypt is now Islamist and led by the Muslim Brotherhood movement, the parent-movement of Hamas. Egypt's new Islamist government regards Hamas as a strategic partner in the struggle against Israel. Indeed, it is through Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood regime that Hamas now enjoys the possibility of dialogue with the United States and Europe.
  • Liberating Palestine "from the river to the sea" is portrayed as a fully realistic goal for the present generation thanks to the Islamic Spring, which has redrawn the map of the Middle East. Conversely, Hamas views Israel as floundering in growing strategic distress as Turkey and Egypt become major, bitter enemies within the Arab world's new vision of its struggle.
  • Hamas views each round of armed conflict with Israel as a stage in a long-term war of attrition. Hamas leaders hope the increasingly severe and violent outbreaks will eventually erode Israel's resilience, while goading the masses toward the emergence of a united military front for the liberation of Palestine.
  • Despite the military blows it has suffered, Hamas is coming out stronger from this round of conflict with Israel. With its rocket fire on Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, Hamas enjoys wall-to-wall backing in the Arab world. The financial aid that will flow into Gaza will enable Hamas to rebuild and even further develop its military infrastructure for the next round.