Hudson Institute har gjort en god
sammanfattning av vad vi kan
vänta oss av det egyptiska valet.
Vid första omgången igår röstade
storstäderna Kairo och Alexandria.
1. The question is not whether the Islamists
will win, but what the size of their victory is
going to be. Contrary to the earlier narrative
propagated by the Western media, the Islamist
victory will not be in the 30–40 percent range.
It is quite apparent to anyone that has been
paying attention that their victory will be nothing
short of a tsunami.
2. The real battle is not going to be between the
Islamists and the imagined liberals. The struggle
in most Egyptian governates will be between the
Muslim Brotherhood’s Democratic Alliance and
the more radical Salafist Islamic Alliance.
3. The imagined sleeping giant of Sufism that could
counter the Islamists is nothing more than a pipe
dream. The Sufi Egyptian Liberation Party is fielding
only 15 candidates in the elections and none of them
is expected to win.
4. The much-talked-about splits inside the Brother-
hood, mainly among their youth, are another pipe
dream. None of the people and parties formed by
former MB members will perform well.
5. The Egyptian Bloc will be the largest non-Islamist
party represented in the next parliament. More than
95 percent of Christians are voting for the Bloc due
to Christians’ support for the Free Egyptian Party,
which is the main party in the Bloc’s three-party
6. Western polling that gave the Wafd the second
rank after the MB will turn out to be wrong. El Wafd
will be the election’s largest losers. The only reason
they polled well was name recognition and not actual
7. The elections will indicate the actual size of the
revolutionary groups. Their Revolution Continues
Coalition will perform very poorly.