De allra första valresultaten ska publiceras
kl 17 idag.
Alla läckor från valkommissionen tycks handla
om huruvida Muslimska Brödraskapet får över
eller under 50 %.
Salafisterna i Nour upges få 20 %.
Det bekräftas att liberalen Amr Hamzawy
besegrat Brödraskapet i en valkrets i centrala
Samuel Tadros räknar upp indikatorer som
man bör spana efter i de första resultaten:
1. How many individual seats get decided from
the first round. With the law requiring that a
candidate receive 50 percent plus one of the
votes cast and over 100 candidates competing
for the each seat, hardly any seat is likely to be
determined without a runoff. If the Islamists
manage to win more than a few seats from
the first round, this will be an indication that
they will completely dominate those seats.
2. Do the former ruling NDP candidates stand
their ground in Luxor? If they do, the same is
likely in other southern governates in the next
rounds. If they don’t, nothing will stand between
the Islamists and a two-thirds majority.
3. While all eyes will be on Alexandria to assess
the Salafists’ electoral strength, it is more important
to watch what will happen in Kafr El Sheikh and
Fayyoum. If the Salafists perform well there, the
same will happen in other governates such as
Behira and Bani Suif.
4. The battle for Port Said. No seat symbolizes the
chances of non-Islamists more than the individual
non-workers seat in Port Said. George Ishak, the
former Communist founder of the Kefaya Movement,
is competing against Akram El Shaer of the MB.
5. Will the tribes hold their ground in the Red Sea or
will the MB win any seat there? This will be an
indication of how other desert governates will go.
Traditionally, the MB has had no presence in those
governates.
***
Tilläggas bör att valet indirekt blir
en intressant mätning på antalet
kopter i Egypten. Regeringen säger
10 %, de själva det dubbla.
De flesta räknar med att huvuddelen av
rösterna på Egyptian Bloc kommer att
vara koptiska....
***
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